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Elections / Prediction markets

Forecasts

What the polls and the markets each say. The two are shown side by side and never combined into one number.

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OverviewControl, every race, issues

2026 MidtermsChamber map & race table

MarketsEvery open market, by kind

The model is layered: fundamentals, then polling, then market signal. The market term is a liquidity-weighted Bayesian read across Polymarket and Kalshi, shown with a 95% credible interval. Polls and markets are never combined into one displayed number.

Your government, decoded in plain English.

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