POLISCOPE
Elections / Prediction markets

Forecasts

What the polls and the markets each say. The two are shown side by side and never combined into one number.
Updated daily

Races

Every race, general and primary, with polls and markets read separately. Click any card to expand in place.

Issue & foreign-policy forecasts

What markets currently price on domestic and global issues. Issues without live signal are left out.

Forecasts combine recency-weighted polling (green), a liquidity-weighted Bayesian read of Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets with a 95% credible interval (gold), and a separate POLISCOPE model. Polls and markets are never combined into one number. Category colors are non-partisan; red/blue denote Democratic vs Republican candidates only.