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NewsNPR PoliticsMay 7, 2026United States

Campaign Staffers Report Using Private Information to Bet on Election Outcomes

Campaign staffers have admitted to using non-public internal polling data to place profitable bets on their own candidates through election prediction markets. While some lawmakers and platforms are implementing bans, experts warn that current federal regulations may be ill-equipped to prevent this form of potential insider trading.

campaign financeinsider tradingprediction marketselection integrityCFTCethics
Read the full story at NPR Politics

Why It Matters

Campaign workers are using private, non-public information to profit from election , raising legal and ethical questions about market manipulation that current federal oversight may not be prepared to address.

Key Facts

  • Campaign staffers have confirmed using non-public internal polling data to place bets on their own candidates in prediction markets before that data was released to the public.
  • Staffers reported making thousands of dollars in profit using this method.
  • The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees prediction markets, but former officials suggest the agency lacks the experience and clear legal authority to prosecute political insider trading.
  • The U.S. Senate has unanimously voted to prohibit Senators and their staff from trading on prediction markets.
  • The White House has issued a warning to staff against using prediction markets.
  • Rep. Seth Moulton has officially banned prediction market use within his House office and campaign, codifying it in the employee handbook.
  • Kalshi has begun banning and fining political candidates for betting on themselves.
  • Legal experts suggest that using non-public information for financial gain in these markets could potentially violate the Commodity Exchange Act.
  • Current Senate rules and proposed legislation do not prohibit campaign staffers from placing election bets on prediction markets.
  • The CFTC first authorized limited election betting in 2014 on the platform PredictIt.

Who's Mentioned

personSeth Moulton“U.S. Representative (D-Mass.) who banned prediction market use in his office and”personTodd Young“U.S. Senator (R-Ind.) who supports banning government employees from betting on ”organizationPredictIt“A nonprofit research-based prediction market platform.”organizationKalshi“A for-profit prediction market platform that has recently banned and fined polit”organizationCommodity Futures Trading Commission“The federal agency responsible for regulating prediction markets.”organizationNPR“The news organization that conducted the investigation and interviews.”personJeff Phaneuf“Campaign manager for Rep. Seth Moulton.”personKristin Johnson“Former CFTC commissioner.”personJeff Le Riche“Former CFTC trial lawyer specializing in insider trading.”organizationPolymarket“An offshore prediction market platform hosting election bets.”