How Texas flipped, and what changes now

Starr County, a majority-Hispanic county in the Rio Grande Valley, part of a border region long counted as a Democratic stronghold, voted for Donald Trump by 16 points in 2024. This week, Democrat James Talarico won it in the U.S. Senate race by about 56 points, according to Newsweek's tally. 7Source 7: The Daily Yonder, Rural Border Communities Fuel Democratic Gains Across Texas (opens in a new tab)6Source 6: Newsweek, How Texas Turned Against Ken Paxton: County Results Explained (opens in a new tab)12Source 12: The Texas Tribune, After supporting Trump in 2024, Texas border counties fueled Democrats’ big night (opens in a new tab)

In 2025, at the urging of President Trump's political team, Texas Republicans redrew the state's congressional map to win up to five more seats in the U.S. House, counting on South Texas to keep voting Republican. On Tuesday, South Texas voted for Democrats, and so did much of the state. 1Source 1: The Texas Tribune, Texas redistricting map: How the GOP could increase its stronghold (opens in a new tab)12Source 12: The Texas Tribune, After supporting Trump in 2024, Texas border counties fueled Democrats’ big night (opens in a new tab)

Talarico beat Attorney General Ken Paxton by about 12 points, 55% to 43%, becoming the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since 1988. State Rep. Gina Hinojosa unseated Gov. Greg Abbott, the first Democrat elected governor since Ann Richards in 1990. Democrats also won the lieutenant governor's and attorney general's offices and, for the first time in 24 years, a majority in the Texas House. 13Source 13: ABC News, Latino vote helped thwart Texas Republicans' redistricting effort (opens in a new tab)8Source 8: KUT / The Texas Newsroom, Texas election results: Democrats break decades-long losing streak in Texas as Talarico wins Senate race, Hinojosa unseats Abbott (opens in a new tab)9Source 9: The Texas Tribune and ProPublica, Texas’ school voucher program could be “unrecognizable, if not extinct,” says Democratic lawmaker (opens in a new tab)

Some changes have already begun. Many others need the Texas Senate, the one chamber of the Legislature Democrats did not win. 10Source 10: KUT / The Texas Newsroom, Texas Democrats want to reshape schools, healthcare and taxes. Can they deliver? (opens in a new tab)2Source 2: FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth, Five major takeaways from Texas’ 2026 midterm election results (opens in a new tab)

Redistricting in 2025

Redistricting normally follows the census, once a decade. Texas did it mid-decade, in bitter 2025 special sessions; Democratic lawmakers delayed the vote by leaving the state. 1Source 1: The Texas Tribune, Texas redistricting map: How the GOP could increase its stronghold (opens in a new tab)

The new map was designed to give Republicans as many as 30 of Texas' 38 House seats. Its logic depended on 2024: Republicans hoped heavily Hispanic South Texas would keep shifting right, putting seats held by Democrats Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez within reach. 1Source 1: The Texas Tribune, Texas redistricting map: How the GOP could increase its stronghold (opens in a new tab)

The court rulings

In November 2025, a three-judge federal panel blocked it, finding that challengers were likely to prove it discriminated against voters based on race. 14Source 14: NPR, Supreme Court lets Texas use gerrymandered map that could give GOP 5 more House seats (opens in a new tab)

Texas argued lawmakers were drawing for partisan advantage, not race. The Supreme Court let Texas use the map, saying the panel had failed to presume the Legislature acted in good faith and had "improperly inserted itself into an active primary campaign." Justice Elena Kagan, dissenting, wrote that the decision would place many Texans in districts "because of their race." 14Source 14: NPR, Supreme Court lets Texas use gerrymandered map that could give GOP 5 more House seats (opens in a new tab)

The House results

Of the five seats Republicans set out to take, they won one, the 32nd District in the Dallas area. 2Source 2: FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth, Five major takeaways from Texas’ 2026 midterm election results (opens in a new tab)4Source 4: CBS News, Democrats have now flipped over 40 House seats. Here are all the districts that changed control in the midterms. (opens in a new tab)

Democrats held the others and flipped two Republican seats: the 15th, around McAllen, where Tejano singer Bobby Pulido beat Rep. Monica De La Cruz by about 25 points, and the 23rd, which runs along hundreds of miles of the border. Texas Republicans will have 24 House seats, one fewer than before the map was redrawn to give them more. 2Source 2: FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth, Five major takeaways from Texas’ 2026 midterm election results (opens in a new tab)4Source 4: CBS News, Democrats have now flipped over 40 House seats. Here are all the districts that changed control in the midterms. (opens in a new tab)12Source 12: The Texas Tribune, After supporting Trump in 2024, Texas border counties fueled Democrats’ big night (opens in a new tab)

The swing was largest along the border, where turnout rose 8% from the last midterm, more than in any other region, according to a Texas Tribune analysis. Democrats also gained outside the border region. Every one of Texas' 171 rural counties moved toward Democrats in the Senate and governor's races, The Daily Yonder found. Around Dallas, the suburban counties of Tarrant, Denton and Collin, all of which voted Republican in 2024, broke for statewide Democrats. 12Source 12: The Texas Tribune, After supporting Trump in 2024, Texas border counties fueled Democrats’ big night (opens in a new tab)7Source 7: The Daily Yonder, Rural Border Communities Fuel Democratic Gains Across Texas (opens in a new tab)2Source 2: FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth, Five major takeaways from Texas’ 2026 midterm election results (opens in a new tab)

Prices

Voters and analysts cited three main reasons. The first was prices. "The promises that President Trump made were very clear, right? Gas prices are going to go low, grocery prices are going to go low, and that did not materialize," Jeronimo Cortina, a University of Houston political scientist, told the Tribune. 12Source 12: The Texas Tribune, After supporting Trump in 2024, Texas border counties fueled Democrats’ big night (opens in a new tab)

Immigration enforcement

The second was immigration enforcement, which in South Texas is also an economic issue. In ABC News' voter poll, 67% of Hispanic voters in the Senate race said the administration's immigration enforcement had gone too far, compared with 45% of white voters in that race. In South Texas, "immigration is the economy," Álvaro Corral, a political scientist at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, told the Tribune. "Housing projects came to a grinding halt because of ICE raids." 13Source 13: ABC News, Latino vote helped thwart Texas Republicans' redistricting effort (opens in a new tab)12Source 12: The Texas Tribune, After supporting Trump in 2024, Texas border counties fueled Democrats’ big night (opens in a new tab)

Campaign spending and outreach

The third was campaign spending and outreach. Cortina said Democrats lost the region in 2024 partly because the party had not invested in it. This time, Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist who worked with Talarico, Hinojosa and Pulido, said his firm alone spent heavily on Spanish-language television, streaming ads and mail, while Republicans spent little on the same. A local group, LUPE Votes, said its canvassers knocked on 90,000 doors. 12Source 12: The Texas Tribune, After supporting Trump in 2024, Texas border counties fueled Democrats’ big night (opens in a new tab)

Vouchers in rural Texas

In rural Texas, politicians and education experts said, school vouchers mattered too: Abbott's rural margin fell 16 points from 2022, by a Texas Tribune count, and at least 13 Republicans he had endorsed or helped fund in his push for vouchers lost or were trailing. 9Source 9: The Texas Tribune and ProPublica, Texas’ school voucher program could be “unrecognizable, if not extinct,” says Democratic lawmaker (opens in a new tab)

Outside spending

Elon Musk spent more than $200 million to help elect Paxton, according to a New York Times analysis cited by Fortune. Talarico, who was the country's most prolific fundraiser, used it as a theme on election night: "We just proved that all the money in the world is no match for the people of Texas." 15Source 15: Fortune, ‘This might just be the biggest defeat for big money in politics’: Billionaires poured hundreds of millions into Tuesday’s races and still lost (opens in a new tab)8Source 8: KUT / The Texas Newsroom, Texas election results: Democrats break decades-long losing streak in Texas as Talarico wins Senate race, Hinojosa unseats Abbott (opens in a new tab)

Republican responses

Republicans have offered different explanations. President Trump blamed Abbott, writing that if the governor "hadn't become a RINO in the last six months of his Political Life, he wouldn't have lost." Wayne Hamilton, a Republican operative who ran Abbott's first campaign for governor, pointed to something else. Even on Tuesday, he noted, candidates his group backed won a few local border offices that, as far as he could tell, no Republican had held before. "If you have two Latinos in a room, you've got five opinions — pretty independent group," he told the Tribune. 16Source 16: KPRC Click2Houston, ‘Became a RINO’: President Donald Trump blames Greg Abbott’s lost in Texas governor race on political life (opens in a new tab)12Source 12: The Texas Tribune, After supporting Trump in 2024, Texas border counties fueled Democrats’ big night (opens in a new tab)

Houston police and ICE

On Friday, Houston Mayor John Whitmire ordered police to stop contacting Immigration and Customs Enforcement about administrative immigration warrants when they write someone a ticket and do not arrest them. In April, Abbott had threatened about $110 million in state grants over the city's earlier limits on cooperation, saying they broke state law, and the city backed down. "I also do this knowing that elections matter," Whitmire said. Austin's mayor asked the same day for the city's policy to be revised, and San Antonio's mayor said she will ask the city manager to explore options for ending police cooperation with ICE. 11Source 11: The Texas Tribune, Houston mayor limits police cooperation with ICE after Democratic wins (opens in a new tab)

School vouchers

About 110,000 students are using Texas' new $1 billion voucher program to attend private schools with public money. Hinojosa has promised to "repair the damage of the Texas voucher scam." She cannot end the program by herself; repeal requires a law. But the incoming comptroller, Democrat Sarah Eckhardt, whose office runs the program, plans to audit it and release more information about it; her Republican predecessors withheld some data, citing student privacy. 9Source 9: The Texas Tribune and ProPublica, Texas’ school voucher program could be “unrecognizable, if not extinct,” says Democratic lawmaker (opens in a new tab)

For families already using vouchers, and the private schools counting on that money, the next year is uncertain. "It's going to be a hot mess," said Scott Schneider, a lawyer for participating private schools. 9Source 9: The Texas Tribune and ProPublica, Texas’ school voucher program could be “unrecognizable, if not extinct,” says Democratic lawmaker (opens in a new tab)

Cities and counties

City and county officials expect less conflict with the state. For years, the Republican Legislature preempted local rules, capped local tax revenue and fought projects like Austin's voter-approved light rail. New Republican proposals to limit local taxes are dead, the Tribune reports, but the old laws stay on the books unless both chambers vote to undo them. "The number one ask right now is partnership," said Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker, a Republican. 17Source 17: The Texas Tribune, With Democrats sweeping Texas, the GOP-led war on cities nears its end (opens in a new tab)

The Republican state Senate

Republicans still control the Texas Senate. Repealing vouchers, expanding Medicaid or rolling back the 2017 law requiring local police to cooperate with federal immigration authorities would all need its votes. 10Source 10: KUT / The Texas Newsroom, Texas Democrats want to reshape schools, healthcare and taxes. Can they deliver? (opens in a new tab)11Source 11: The Texas Tribune, Houston mayor limits police cooperation with ICE after Democratic wins (opens in a new tab)

The new Democratic lieutenant governor, Vikki Goodwin, would normally have significant influence over which bills advance and who sits on Senate committees, but the Senate sets its own rules. Quorum Report has reported that Senate Republicans were considering limiting her powers; The Texas Newsroom said it had not independently confirmed those discussions. 10Source 10: KUT / The Texas Newsroom, Texas Democrats want to reshape schools, healthcare and taxes. Can they deliver? (opens in a new tab)2Source 2: FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth, Five major takeaways from Texas’ 2026 midterm election results (opens in a new tab)

One source of leverage for Hinojosa is the veto, including over individual items in the state budget, but a veto can only stop new laws, not repeal existing ones. 10Source 10: KUT / The Texas Newsroom, Texas Democrats want to reshape schools, healthcare and taxes. Can they deliver? (opens in a new tab)

Possible areas of agreement

Property tax relief has passed with bipartisan support before, and both Hinojosa and Abbott called for protecting Texans from higher electricity bills tied to data centers. "There could be a lot of stalemates," said state Sen. Paul Bettencourt, a Houston Republican. "And there could be agreement." 10Source 10: KUT / The Texas Newsroom, Texas Democrats want to reshape schools, healthcare and taxes. Can they deliver? (opens in a new tab)17Source 17: The Texas Tribune, With Democrats sweeping Texas, the GOP-led war on cities nears its end (opens in a new tab)

In Washington

In Washington, Talarico takes the seat Republican John Cornyn has held since 2002, joining a Senate Democrats are projected to control; they are projected to hold 54 seats, with two races (Alaska and Mississippi) not yet called. In the House, Texas will send one more Democrat than it does now, under a map drawn to send five fewer. 8Source 8: KUT / The Texas Newsroom, Texas election results: Democrats break decades-long losing streak in Texas as Talarico wins Senate race, Hinojosa unseats Abbott (opens in a new tab)13Source 13: ABC News, Latino vote helped thwart Texas Republicans' redistricting effort (opens in a new tab)2Source 2: FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth, Five major takeaways from Texas’ 2026 midterm election results (opens in a new tab)

Redistricting in other states

The Texas map also prompted California voters to approve a map of their own, and Democrats won all five California seats it targeted. Across the two largest states, a mid-decade redrawing fight Republicans started to protect their House majority ended up adding seats to the Democrats. 4Source 4: CBS News, Democrats have now flipped over 40 House seats. Here are all the districts that changed control in the midterms. (opens in a new tab)2Source 2: FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth, Five major takeaways from Texas’ 2026 midterm election results (opens in a new tab)1Source 1: The Texas Tribune, Texas redistricting map: How the GOP could increase its stronghold (opens in a new tab)

The 2028 presidential race

Texas has 40 electoral votes in presidential elections, second only to California. One election does not make a swing state, and Democrats' gains along the border came after a swing the other way just two years earlier. Cortina said of Democrats: "They have a very short-term window to deliver." Tuesday's results showed that either party can lose Texas statewide. 18Source 18: National Archives, Distribution of Electoral Votes (opens in a new tab)12Source 12: The Texas Tribune, After supporting Trump in 2024, Texas border counties fueled Democrats’ big night (opens in a new tab)