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NewsSouth Florida ReporterJuly 16, 2026United States

Increased Risk of Heavy Rain and Potential Tropical Storms in the Southeast

Meteorologists are tracking a weather pattern shift that will bring heavy rain and potential flash flooding to the southeastern U.S. starting this weekend. There is a low chance that a tropical depression or storm could form in the Gulf or off the Atlantic coast before the end of July.

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Why It Matters

Residents in the southeastern U.S. face an increased risk of flash flooding and heavy thunderstorms this weekend, with a small possibility of tropical storm development.

Key Facts

  • Heavy, gusty thunderstorms and potential flash flooding are forecast for the southeastern U.S. starting this weekend.
  • A low-pressure area may develop near the northeastern Gulf Coast or southern Atlantic Coast with a chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm.
  • The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast has been adjusted to 8-14 named storms, down from the original 11-16 prediction.
  • The forecast for 4-7 hurricanes and 3-5 direct U.S. impacts remains unchanged.
  • A strong El Niño is expected this autumn, which typically leads to fewer Atlantic tropical storms due to increased wind shear.
  • Tropical storm Arthur, the first of the season, caused four deaths and minor damage in mid-June.
  • The Pacific basin is experiencing increased tropical activity, with Elida and Fausto expected to become the first hurricanes of the season in those waters.

Who's Mentioned

otherFausto“Forecasted tropical storm in the Pacific”otherBertha“Name of the next potential tropical storm”otherElida“Recent tropical storm in the Pacific”personAlex DaSilva“AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert”personAlex Sosnowski“AccuWeather senior meteorologist”otherArthur“First named storm of the 2026 season”