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NewsLos Angeles Times – CaliforniaNovember 13, 2026Los Angeles County

UC Berkeley poll finds over a quarter of California voters hesitant about the 2030 Census

Photo: Los Angeles Times – California

A new poll shows that more than a quarter of registered voters in California are uncertain about completing the upcoming 2030 Census, primarily driven by privacy concerns. The survey found that 72% of households are certain to participate, while younger voters and voters of color exhibited the highest levels of reluctance. Additionally, proposed changes by the administration regarding noncitizen representation could impact California's congressional seat counts.

CensusDemographicsVoting and ElectionsPublic Policy
Read the full story at Los Angeles Times – California

Why It Matters

California risks losing up to four congressional seats following the 2030 Census due to stagnant population growth and potential federal rule changes regarding noncitizen apportionment, which directly impacts federal funding and political representation for residents.

Key Facts

  • More than 25% of registered voters in California are unsure if they will fill out the 2030 Census.
  • 72% of surveyed voters stated their household is certain to fill out the census.
  • Among reluctant respondents, 16% said they will probably fill it out, 5% said there is a 50-50 chance, 3% said they probably or certainly will not, and 4% were unsure.
  • Fewer than half (46%) of voters under the age of 30 said they would definitely complete the census.
  • Roughly two-thirds of Black (68%) and Latino (65%) voters, as well as voters aged 30 to 39 (63%), are certain they will participate, alongside 57% of Asian American and Pacific Islander voters.
  • Half of voters expressed confidence in the privacy of their census responses, while 43% were not confident.
  • California is expected to lose up to four congressional seats after the 2030 Census due to a stagnant population.
  • The Trump administration proposed rules for the 2030 Census to exclude noncitizen residents from political apportionment and remove questions about race, ethnicity, and sexual orientation.
  • The poll surveyed 2,787 registered voters in California between Oct. 19-25 online in English and Spanish, with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

Who's Mentioned

OrganizationUC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies“conducted the voter survey”OrganizationPew Research Center“authored a 2020 report on congressional representation impacts”PersonEric Schickler“co-director of the IGS Poll”OrganizationEvelyn and Walter Haas, Jr. Fund“provided funding for the poll”locationTexas“state projected to gain congressional seats”locationFlorida“state projected to gain congressional seats”OrganizationAmerican Redistricting Project“nonpartisan group estimating California's potential loss of congressional seats”OrganizationLos Angeles Times“provided funding for the poll”OrganizationTrump administration“proposed new rules for the 2030 Census”locationCalifornia“state where the poll was conducted and congressional seats are at stake”PersonDitas Katague“directed California's Census 2020 outreach”