NewsCreative Loafing TampaNovember 3, 2026Hillsborough County
Florida midterm elections feature close gubernatorial and legislative contests amid high early voter turnout
Photo: Creative Loafing Tampa
Ahead of Election Day, Florida Republicans hold a significant voter-registration advantage over Democrats, though Democrats have shown strong turnout in early and mail-in voting. Voters are deciding the gubernatorial race between Byron Donalds and David Jolly, a U.S. Senate seat, three constitutional amendments, and all state legislative and congressional seats.
Read the full story at Creative Loafing TampaWhy It Matters
The outcome of these races and three constitutional amendments — including Amendment 3, which could reduce local tax revenue by nearly $12 billion annually — will shape Florida's political representation and local government funding.
Key Facts
- More than 5.4 million Floridians cast ballots in early voting or by mail ahead of Election Day.
- Registered Republicans hold a 2.4% lead in early votes cast over registered Democrats (40.2% to 37.8%), with NPA and third-party voters casting 22%.
- Registered Republicans hold a voter-registration advantage of more than 1.5 million in Florida.
- Byron Donalds leads David Jolly by an average of about 4 points in the gubernatorial race, according to RealClearPolitics.
- Byron Donalds has raised nearly $174 million across his campaign accounts, compared to less than $27 million for David Jolly.
- Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon by an average of 6 points in the U.S. Senate race.
- Voters are deciding three constitutional amendments placed on the ballot by the Florida Legislature, including Amendment 3 regarding homestead exemptions.
- Amendment 3 aims to raise the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes, with projected annual local revenue reductions reaching nearly $12 billion after five years.
- All 28 congressional seats are on the ballot under a newly enacted redistricting map currently challenged in a lawsuit.
- Legislative rematches include Senate District 14 in Hillsborough County (Brian Nathan vs. Josie Tomkow) and House District 87 in Palm Beach County (Emily Gregory vs. Jon Maples).
Who's Mentioned
PersonRon DeSantis“Governor of Florida whose past election margins and comments on turnout are refe”PersonMatt Towery“Insider Advantage pollster discussing the gubernatorial race.”PersonBrian Nathan“Democratic incumbent in Senate District 14.”PersonAngie Nixon“Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate.”locationFlorida“State where the elections are taking place.”PersonEmily Gregory“Democratic incumbent in House District 87.”PersonDonald Trump“Former president whose public approval numbers and past election performance are”PersonMarco Rubio“Former U.S. Senator who originally won the Senate term.”PersonByron Donalds“Republican gubernatorial candidate.”PersonSteve Schale“Democratic Party strategist who wrote about turnout statistics on Substack.”locationLee“County in Florida included in campaign stops.”PersonJosie Tomkow“Republican candidate in Senate District 14.”PersonBlaise Ingoglia“Florida Republican Chief Financial Officer who campaigned in Polk County.”locationHillsborough County“County containing Senate District 14.”locationSarasota“County in Florida included in campaign stops.”locationBrevard County“County in Florida where a campaign event was cancelled due to weather.”PersonDavid Jolly“Democratic gubernatorial candidate.”PersonJon Maples“Republican candidate in House District 87.”locationPasco“County in Florida included in campaign stops.”locationPolk County“County in Florida where campaign stops were held and turnout was discussed.”PersonAshley Moody“Republican candidate for U.S. Senate.”locationPalm Beach County“County containing House District 87.”