NewsWUSF (NPR Tampa Bay) — PoliticsNovember 1, 2026Hillsborough County
Florida GOP Officials Dismiss Early Voting Turnout Discrepancies, Relying on Election Day Strength
Photo: WUSF (NPR Tampa Bay) — Politics
Although Democrats have outpaced Republicans in early and mail-in voting numbers compared to four years ago, Florida Republican officials and strategists insist they remain confident. They point to a historical trend of high Republican turnout on Election Day and ongoing outreach efforts to close the gap.
Read the full story at WUSF (NPR Tampa Bay) — PoliticsWhy It Matters
The pace of early voting and shifting turnout patterns between registered Republicans and Democrats in counties like Polk and Hillsborough signal a potentially tighter margin in upcoming s than seen in recent landslide cycles.
Key Facts
- More than 4.9 million Floridians had cast votes as of Saturday morning in the current election cycle.
- Registered Republicans had cast 40.6% of all early and mail-in votes, while Democrats accounted for 37.9% and non-party-affiliated or third-party voters made up 21.5%, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.
- In Polk County, registered Republicans cast 468 more votes than registered Democrats despite a 13-point Republican registration advantage.
- In Hillsborough County, where Republicans overtook Democrats in party registration in early 2025, Democrats held an 18,312-vote lead as of Thursday afternoon.
- During the August primary, Republican Election Day turnout was double that of Democrats, reaching 60% compared to 30%.
- Early voting in Florida ends on Saturday in many counties, with some extending it to Sunday, Nov. 1.
- Some Republican officials note that inflation, high gas prices, and the traditional reduction in enthusiasm during off-year midterms have impacted early turnout.
- In the 2018 elections, major statewide races featured victory margins within 0.5 percent, triggering statutorily required machine recounts.
- In contrast to 2018, the 2022 midterms saw large Republican victory margins, such as Ron DeSantis defeating Charlie Crist by 19 points.
Who's Mentioned
PersonRon DeSantis“Governor of Florida who commented on Republican voter turnout.”locationMiami“City hosting a Cuban bakery visit by Democratic leaders.”PersonMatt Towery“InsiderAdvantage pollster analyzing early voting data.”PersonApril Schiff“Hillsborough County state GOP committeewoman noting Democratic enthusiasm.”locationNicaragua“Country of origin for immigrants and exiles in South Florida.”PersonAngie Nixon“Democratic standard-bearer for Senate.”PersonKevin J. Cooper“Miami-Dade County Republican Party chair discussing local political dynamics.”locationEscambia County“Florida county with local GOP commentary on midterm turnout.”locationSarasota County“Florida county with predictions of close midterm margins.”PersonNikki Fried“Democratic Agriculture Commissioner candidate in 2018.”OrganizationFlorida Phoenix“News publication publishing the article.”PersonMarco Rubio“Republican U.S. Senator winning in 2022.”OrganizationUniversity of Florida Election Lab“Tracker providing statewide vote statistics.”PersonVal Demings“Democratic candidate in the U.S. Senate race.”PersonByron Donalds“Candidate referenced in election predictions.”PersonJack Brill“Sarasota County Republican Executive Committee chair predicting a closer race.”OrganizationInsiderAdvantage“Polling organization analyzing early votes.”PersonCharlie Crist“Democratic candidate defeated in the 2022 gubernatorial race.”PersonMichael Moline“Editor at Florida Phoenix.”locationHillsborough County“Florida county where Democrats held an early vote lead despite Republican regist”OrganizationDemocratic Socialists of America“Political organization referenced in candidate discussions.”locationCuba“Country of origin for immigrants and exiles in South Florida.”PersonEliott Rodriguez“Democratic Congressional District 27 candidate.”PersonAnthony Pedicini“Republican strategist predicting GOP dominance on Election Day.”OrganizationStates Newsroom“Nonprofit news network supporting Florida Phoenix.”locationCrystal River“Location of Governor DeSantis's press conference.”locationMiami-Dade“Florida county carried by Trump in 2024 and noted for socialist sensitivity.”PersonHakeem Jeffries“Democratic House Leader appearing at a Miami bakery.”PersonChris Mitchell“Democratic strategist highlighting Democratic turnout and NPA voters.”PersonKat Gates-Skipper“Polk County GOP state committeewoman discussing early voting efforts.”locationPolk County“Florida county where registered Republicans held a narrow early vote lead over D”locationVenezuela“Country of origin for immigrants and exiles in South Florida.”PersonJackson McMillan“Democratic strategist commenting on Republican turnout metrics.”PersonJohn Roberts“Escambia County Republican Party chair discussing midterm enthusiasm.”PersonScott“Politician referenced regarding 2018 election margins.”