How a Supreme Court Ruling is Changing Congressional Map-Making

The Supreme Court's ruling allows states to redraw congressional district lines in ways that may eliminate majority-minority districts, potentially shifting the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives by up to 19 seats for Republicans or 10-22 seats for Democrats over the next two election cycles.

• •The Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais has reduced federal protections for majority-minority congressional districts.
• •Six Republican-led states (Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi) have expressed intent to redraw maps.
• •Louisiana and Tennessee are identified as the most likely states to complete new maps in time for the 2026 midterms.
• •Florida completed a mid-decade redistricting round that added four GOP-friendly seats.
• •Fair Fight Action analysis suggests Republicans could gain up to 19 seats over two cycles under the new rules.
• •Democrats are considering retaliatory redistricting in California, New York, Colorado, Maryland, and Illinois for 2028.
• •Aggressive Democratic redistricting could potentially yield 10 to 22 additional seats for the party.
• •Redrawing maps to maximize party seats often requires diluting the concentration of Black, Latino, and Asian American voters in specific districts.
• •Illinois Democrats previously abandoned a mid-decade redistricting plan due to opposition from the Illinois Legislative Black Caucus regarding the dilution of Black voter influence.
• •The 1st, 2nd, and 7th Congressional Districts in Illinois are specifically cited as areas where Black representation is a priority for local leaders.