NewsTampa Bay TimesOctober 24, 2026Hillsborough County
Florida Democrats face Republican voter registration advantage in tight midterm races
Photo: Tampa Bay Times
With less than two weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms, polls show tightening races for Florida's governor and U.S. Senate seats despite Republicans holding a 1.5-million-voter registration advantage. Democratic candidates David Jolly and Angie Nixon are running narrow races against Republicans Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody, aiming to overcome a historical GOP machine and past electoral letdowns similar to 2018.
Read the full story at Tampa Bay TimesWhy It Matters
The outcome of the midterm elections will determine whether Democrats can secure their first statewide win in years or if Republicans will maintain near-total dominance across Florida's government offices.
Key Facts
- Republicans hold a 1.5-million-voter registration advantage over Democrats in Florida, compared to Democrats holding an edge of about 500,000 active registered voters eight years prior.
- A University of North Florida poll showed Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly by 2 percentage points for the open governor's seat.
- The same poll showed Republican Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon by 4 percentage points for the U.S. Senate race.
- The poll has a margin of error of nearly 3 percentage points either way for each candidate.
- Florida Republicans hold commanding leads in money and institutional experience after nearly 30 years of uninterrupted electoral success.
- An appellate court recently lambasted a grand jury report regarding a $10 million fund controversy as 'error-ridden' and ordered it expunged from the record, ruling the transfer was a lawful executive action.
- Jolly and Nixon are drawing double digits from Republicans and leading with independent voters according to poll indicators.
Who's Mentioned
PersonRon DeSantis“Governor of Florida”OrganizationUniversity of North Florida“Conducted public opinion polls”PersonAngie Nixon“Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate”locationFlorida“State where the elections are taking place”PersonDonald Trump“President whose approval rating and past white house presence are noted in the a”PersonSean Hannity“Fox News host”PersonByron Donalds“Republican candidate for governor”PersonRyan Smith“Chief strategist for the Donalds campaign”PersonBernie Sanders“U.S. Senator”PersonJake Hoffman“Executive director of the Tampa Bay Young Republicans”locationGeorgia“State with competitive races”locationYbor City“Neighborhood in Tampa, Florida”locationArizona“State with competitive races”locationSouth Tampa“Area in Florida”PersonRick Scott“Republican who won the U.S. Senate seat in 2018”PersonAndrew Gillum“Democratic gubernatorial hopeful in 2018”OrganizationDemocratic Socialists of America“Political organization associated with Angie Nixon”OrganizationNewsRadio WFLA“Radio station airing 'The Ryan Gorman Show'”PersonBill Nelson“Former Democratic U.S. Senator who lost his seat in 2018”PersonDavid Jolly“Democratic candidate for governor”OrganizationFox News“Television network”OrganizationTampa Bay Young Republicans“Political organization”PersonSean Freeder“Director of the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab”OrganizationTampa Bay Times“Newspaper”PersonMonica Petrella“Volunteer turnout coordinator in South Tampa”PersonAshley Moody“Republican incumbent for U.S. Senate and former attorney general”locationOhio“State with competitive races”