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NewsWPLG Local 10 – PoliticsOctober 24, 2026Miami-Dade County

North Carolina congressional redistricting highlights national decline of competitive swing districts

Photo: WPLG Local 10 – Politics

State legislative map redrawing transformed North Carolina's 13th Congressional District from a competitive swing seat into a safe Republican district, reflecting a national decline in competitive House seats. The number of swing districts nationwide fell from 45 to 37, driven by partisan redistricting and geographic self-sorting by voters. This shift leaves most representatives dependent primarily on narrow primary electorates, contributing to legislative polarization.

ElectionsCongressPolitical PolarizationRedistricting
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Why It Matters

The concentration of voters into noncompetitive districts reduces the number of competitive House races nationwide to 37, shaping how political parties allocate campaign spending and limiting voters' leverage to hold members of Congress accountable.

Key Facts

  • North Carolina's Republican-controlled legislature redrew the 13th Congressional District into an hourglass shape, transforming a swing district into a safe Republican seat.
  • Democratic former Representative Wiley Nickel won the 13th District in 2022 by about 9,000 votes, while Republican Brad Knott won the redrawn district in 2024 by over 70,000 votes.
  • The number of national swing districts—defined as seats won by a presidential candidate by 5 percentage points or fewer—dropped from 45 to 37 following recent redistricting battles.
  • According to Unite America, 87% of representatives elected to the House in 2024 were chosen by 7% of the country's voters in primaries.
  • Multiple studies cited indicate that without partisan gerrymandering, the House would have roughly double the number of competitive seats it currently contains.
  • Wiley Nickel chose not to run for reelection after analyzing return data and subsequently won the Democratic primary for district attorney of Wake County.
  • Only 15% of North Carolina voting precincts are classified as politically competitive, according to political scientist Michael Bitzer.
  • Paul Barringer is running as the Democratic challenger against Republican incumbent Brad Knott in the 13th District.

Who's Mentioned

OrganizationIndivisible“Liberal advocacy group.”PersonPaul Barringer“Democratic nominee against Knott.”PersonJoshua Huder“Political scientist at Georgetown University.”PersonIan Shapiro“Yale political scientist.”OrganizationUnite America“An organization pushing alternatives to party primaries.”PersonMary Blank“Head of the Johnston County chapter of Indivisible.”PersonRoy Cooper“Former governor running for the Democratic nomination.”PersonNick Troiano“Executive director of Unite America.”PersonMike Marinella“Spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Campaign.”PersonLinda Long“Republican resident of Roxboro.”PersonBrad Knott“Current Republican congressman for North Carolina's 13th Congressional District.”PersonWiley Nickel“Former Democratic congressman for North Carolina's 13th Congressional District w”PersonDonald Trump“Republican president whose actions sparked a partisan redistricting battle.”PersonMichael Bitzer“Political scientist at Catawba College in North Carolina.”OrganizationNational Republican Congressional Campaign“Party campaign organization.”PersonGeorge Scott“Retired architectural engineer in Franklinton.”