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NewsNY Post PoliticsMay 8, 2026United States

Cook Political Report Shifts 11 House Races Toward Republicans Following Redistricting

The Cook Political Report has updated its election forecasts, moving 11 congressional districts in Virginia, Florida, and Tennessee toward the Republican party. These changes follow recent redistricting decisions and court rulings that altered district boundaries in those states.

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Why It Matters

These rating changes indicate that Democrats now need a net gain of approximately 10 seats to win control of the House of Representatives, up from a previous estimate of three.

Key Facts

  • The Cook Political Report upgraded Republican chances in 11 House races across Virginia, Tennessee, and Florida.
  • Democrats now need a net gain of approximately 10 seats to win the House, compared to a previous estimate of three.
  • The Virginia Supreme Court ruled against implementing a new Democrat-friendly congressional map.
  • Four Virginia districts held by Republicans (Wittman, Kiggans, McGuire, Cline) shifted toward more favorable ratings for the GOP.
  • Virginia's 7th District (Rep. Eugene Vindman) was downgraded from 'solid' to 'likely' Democrat.
  • Three Florida districts (9th, 14th, 22nd) shifted from 'solid' Democrat to 'likely' or 'lean' Republican.
  • Florida's 25th District, where Rep. Jared Moskowitz is running, shifted from 'safe' Democrat to 'toss up'.
  • Florida's 23rd District shifted from 'lean' to 'solid' Democrat.
  • Tennessee's 9th District (Rep. Steve Cohen) shifted from 'solid' Democrat to 'solid' Republican.
  • Tennessee's 5th District (Rep. Andy Ogles) shifted from 'likely' to 'solid' Republican.
  • Dave Wasserman projects Republicans will gain 6 to 7 seats from redistricting alone.

Who's Mentioned

personSteve Cohen“Democratic Representative in Tennessee whose district shifted to solid Republica”personBill Lee“Republican Governor of Tennessee who approved the new map.”personJen Kiggans“Republican Representative in Virginia.”personBen Cline“Republican Representative in Virginia.”personAndy Ogles“Republican Representative in Tennessee.”personKathy Castor“Democratic Representative in Florida.”personJohn McGuire“Republican Representative in Virginia.”personDave Wasserman“Senior editor at Cook Political Report.”personDarren Soto“Democratic Representative in Florida.”personJared Moskowitz“Democratic Representative whose district shifted to 'toss up'.”personEugene Vindman“Democratic Representative in Virginia whose district rating was downgraded.”personDonald Trump“President whose redistricting victories are cited as a factor in the rating chan”organizationCook Political Report“Nonpartisan election handicapper that issued the new ratings.”personRob Wittman“Republican Representative in Virginia.”personLois Frankel“Democratic Representative in Florida.”