CalRecycle adopts low baseline for California single-use plastic reduction law

The newly adopted baseline means Californians will see 475,000 fewer tons of plastic removed from state commerce by 2032 than previously estimated, altering the real-world reduction from 37 pounds less per person per year to 13 pounds less.

• •CalRecycle adopted an industry-submitted baseline of 1.03 million tons for single-use plastic produced, distributed, and sold in California in 2023.
• •The new baseline is one-third of the state's 2024 estimate of 2.9 million tons and 20% lower than the industry's June estimate of 1.29 million tons.
• •By 2032, plastic producers must cut single-use plastic sales by 25%, resulting in an actual reduction of 250,000 tons instead of the previously anticipated 725,000 tons.
• •The reduction per resident drops from 37 pounds less plastic per year to 13 pounds less per year.
• •The first reduction target of 10% begins on Jan. 1, requiring a cut of 100,000 tons instead of the previously expected 290,000 tons.
• •The baseline update relied on reporting from only half of the Circular Action Alliance's member companies.
• •Companies generating less than $1 million per year in revenue must register with the alliance, but their numbers are excluded from the baseline.
• •The report states that 222 billion single-use plastic components were produced, sold, or distributed in the state in 2023, more than double the June analysis of 108 billion items.
• •Recycling rates for materials like high-density polyethylene (HDPE) will mathematically jump from 19% to 53% using the new lower baseline, even though no additional plastic is actually recycled.
• •Senate Bill 54, known as the Plastic Pollution Prevention and Packaging Producer Responsibility Act, was signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2022.