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NewsFOX 13 Tampa BaySeptember 4, 2026Hillsborough

Climate Prediction Center forecasts warmer-than-normal fall for Tampa Bay

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) projects warmer-than-normal temperatures for Tampa Bay through November, with a strong El Niño pattern likely influencing regional weather. While September remains a wet month, rainfall is expected to decrease significantly as the region transitions into winter.

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Why It Matters

Residents should anticipate delayed arrival of cooler temperatures and potential shifts in precipitation patterns due to a strengthening , which typically impacts Florida weather most significantly during the winter months.

Key Facts

  • The Climate Prediction Center forecasts warmer-than-normal temperatures for Florida throughout September, October, and November.
  • Average rainfall in September is 6.09 inches, dropping to 2.34 inches in October.
  • A strong, potentially historic El Niño is strengthening in the tropical Pacific, which typically influences Florida weather patterns.
  • El Niño's impact on Florida temperatures is generally more pronounced in winter than in fall.
  • Meteorological fall is defined as September 1 through November 30.
  • Astronomical fall begins on September 22, 2026.
  • Consistent cooler weather in Tampa Bay typically does not arrive until November.
  • Average high temperatures in Tampa Bay are approximately 90° in September, mid-80s in October, and near 80° in November.

Who's Mentioned

locationTampa Bay“The geographic area subject to the weather forecast.”organizationClimate Prediction Center“Federal agency providing the seasonal weather outlook.”